Manila: Ten out of eleven candidates from the administration-backed Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas coalition are statistically in the winning circle less than a week before the May 12 midterm elections, according to the latest pre-election survey released by OCTA Research on Wednesday.
According to Philippines News Agency, the April 20 to 24 poll showed ACT-CIS party-list Rep. Erwin Tulfo among the top performers of the Alyansa slate with 52.7 percent voter preference, placing him in the 1st to 2nd range. Former Senate president Vicente Sotto III earned 42.3 percent and is ranked 3rd to 8th, followed by Senator Pia Cayetano with 39.1 percent in the 3rd to 10th range, and Senator Ramon Revilla Jr. with 38.1 percent in the 3rd to 10th range.
Rounding out the administration-backed bets that made it into the statistical winning circle are Makati Mayor Abby Binay (37.6 percent, 3rd to 11th), Senator Lito Lapid (35.6 percent, 4th to 13th), former senator Panfilo Lacson (34.3 percent, 5th to 16th), House lawmaker Camille Villar (31.9 percent, 8th to 18th), former senator Manny Pacquiao (29.1 percent, 10th to 20th), and former Interior secretary Benhur Abalos (28.5 percent, 10th to 20th).
The only Alyansa bet currently outside the statistical Top 12 is Senator Francis Tolentino, who registered 25.2 percent support and ranked 13th to 22nd. OCTA noted that the fluid dynamics of the race could significantly affect the final outcome, particularly noting that the 9th to 12th positions remain “too close to call”.
The firm said shifts in the final results could be driven by voter turnout, changes in voter preference, intensified campaign efforts, and the influence of political alliances and block endorsements. “As the May 12 midterm elections approach, the senatorial race remains exceptionally tight and highly competitive. Analysis from OCTA Research suggests that the rankings, especially in the critical 9th to 12th positions, are still fluid, with candidates separated by a narrow margin of just a few percentage points,” OCTA said.
Among non-administration candidates, Senator Christopher ‘Bong’ Go, who is not part of the Alyansa coalition, tied with Tulfo for the top spot with 56.8 percent. Other non-Alyansa candidates in the statistical winning circle include independent broadcaster Ben Tulfo (40.2 percent, 3rd to 10th), former senator Bam Aquino (31.4 percent, 9th to 18th), TV host Willie Revillame (30.4 percent, 9th to 20th), Senator Imee Marcos (28.9 percent, 10th to 20th), Rodante Marcoleta (27.8 percent, 11th to 20th), and former senator Kiko Pangilinan (26.3 percent, 11th to 21st).
The survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews with 1,200 registered voters nationwide. It has a ±3 percent margin of error at a 95 percent confidence level.
